NIE and Iran: Time for a reality check...

Ahead of any peacenik comment opposed to my position, imagine for a moment how Israeli’s must feel. If someone down the street publicly indicates that he hates you and, given the chance wants to harm you, adding that when he gets the means he’s going to do it…would you not be concerned about how and when he acquires the means?

With intent, I have held back on posting about the recent National Intelligence Estimate on Iran preferring instead, to contemplate the mass of posting and reporting that followed it, to let the dust settle, if you will. To be sure, both before and after its release, it occurred to me that the U.S. appeared to be getting soft on Ahmadinejad even though Iran continued pressing ahead with its program to enter the nuclear club. I know what you are thinking; pressing ahead? Yes, I know, the report spells out that Tehran has halted its nuclear program. However, is that really the case? Well, yes and very much no, indeed, if any judgment were based solely on mainstream media that is, mainstream Liberal media, then most folk would unwisely conclude that the threat ceased as early as 2003 thus those recent comments by the Bush about military action were archetypal administration spin.

Yet it was only just over three weeks ago that, you know who, bragged about how Western resistance had been “defied” and (Tehran) was "one step away from peak of nuclear success."

So let allow me to cut to the chase, we should remain very concerned and both the U.S. and Israel must hold fast on talk of military action if U.N. sanctions and diplomacy fail to prevent Iran from expanding its enrichment program.

Now for the reality check:

• How confident can we be about the intelligence assessment anyway? Its contributors include no small measure of politico’s and those aligned to Liberal thought. Given the players, it gives reason to be doubtful, a case of cooked intelligence maybe. Said Shabtai Shavit, former Mossad head, “we shouldn't rule out the possibility that often intelligence is being used for political purposes and hidden agendas."


• Even the International Atomic Energy Agency has taken on a cautious approach in drawing conclusions, “To be frank, we are more sceptical…we don’t by the American position 100% …we are not that generous with Iran.”


• Broadly, speaking committees that combine assessments from many intelligence agencies cannot be relied upon as a basis for deductions, especially about one as critical as a nuclear Iran.


• We should distinguish between Iran’s nuclear capabilities and its intentions. The former takes years but the latter can change very quickly. As National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley explains, "Iranian entities are continuing to develop a range of technical capabilities that could be applied to producing nuclear weapons if a decision is made to do so.”


• The NIE only says the program is “paused”, to quote Alan Dowd from FrontPage, “Indeed, if history is any guide, Iran’s nuclear program is probably as dead as North Korea’s was in the 1990’s."


• The report fails to integrate the broad view of Iranian actions in the region. Its continuing support of insurgents in Iraq tells us much; an Iran that remains defiant and aggressive not, as the report suggests a timid and amenable nation.


• What the report does not tell us is noteworthy, that it is not difficult to convert a civilian nuclear program into a military one if a nation has the “scientific, technical and industrial capacity” and some highly enriched material. The NIE says “with high confidence” that Iran has the former and we know its trying to produce the latter.

Let us therefore move on from the distortion of the past week and once again embrace the words of Cheney at the Washington Institute of Near East Policy:

"The Iranian regime needs to know that if it stays on its present course, the international community is prepared to impose serious consequences. The United States joins other nations in sending a clear message: We will not allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon."

American Interests demands that we dismiss the NIE report and realise that Iran is still on a path – direct or indirectly - leading to the production of an atomic arsenal. A nuclear Iran will certainly tilt the adjoining Arab states in the direction of fanaticism and if the world fails to act, Tehran will most certainly be the catalyst for a regional arms race. It would also greatly empower Shi'ite fundamentalism altering the balance of power of the Middle East. Moreover, if it were to happen, how can we ever be certain that a device will not land in the hands of any number of anti-Western or anti-Israel terror groups whom they are aligned with? Make no mistake a nuclear Iran poses a completely unacceptable threat to Israel and the West. Click here and here to read about Ahmadinejad position on the Jewish state.

I also found it alarming that the report was discussed so openly. One cannot help but think that Liberal interests leaked sections in support of their standpoint thus dealing a blow to Bush and undermining the administration.

Frankly, the more Washington or the world dither over what to do, the more progress Iran makes in its enrichment program. In posting on the NIE report, Donald Douglas at American Power concludes, “The ultimate winner is Iran, which can call for reprisals against the West as its leadership continues to work for its ultimate goal of establishing regional hegemony in the Middle East.” However, Ahmadinejad would be foolish if he thinks he is off the hook for the Bush administration is not so easily deflected.

Success in the wider war on terror means taking whatever action may be necessary to put a permanent halt to Iran’s push for nuclear capability; action in whatever shape or form…

Ahead of any peacenik comment opposed to my position, imagine for a moment how Israeli’s must feel. If someone down the street publicly indicates that he hates you and, given the chance wants to harm you, adding that when he gets the means he’s going to do it…would you not be concerned about how and when he acquires the means?

One may be excused for interpreting this post as a call to bomb, more accurately it serves as a call to keep all options open and above all the real threat of military action.

Over to you...