... new networks are for now, largely motivated by international trade, nevertheless concern is building that in a not too distant future, emerging powers will begin forming security and political relationships that on current evidence will test America’s capacity to adapt...
In this era of Globalization, multi-polar formations that defy existing U.S. power and authority are beginning to surface, and we can predict a future where U.S. pre-eminence may be challenged due to an array of international complexities in addition to the rise of new foreign connections that exclude it. Specifically of concern, are nation states joining to form economic and security arrangements that leave out and reject the interests of the United States. How does the U.S. counter this? It cannot resist these emerging trends with force, and in any event, even Americans currently lack the will for resistance of an imperialist nature. Policymakers in the U.S. must therefore accommodate such changes whilst balancing national interests against other global responsibilities.
Potential economic and military superpowers are beginning to emerge, and although none is yet, of its own volition sufficiently strong to offset American domain, Washington may be well advised to consider the prospect that they may soon combine to do so. After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Russia is once again flexing its economic and military muscle, India its economic might and China all the above, in addition to building the foundations for a future dominating world role. Collectively, these developments in addition to new partnerships and networks, may begin testing the dominance of not just the U.S, but the fundamental G7 group.
The new networks are for now, largely motivated by international trade, nevertheless concern is building that in a not too distant future, emerging powers will begin forming security and political relationships that on current evidence will test America’s capacity to adapt.
BRIC – Brazil, Russia, India, and China: The first two have enormous capacity as suppliers of raw materials while India and China are becoming the world’s biggest manufacturing economies. Global investment banking firm Goldman Sachs says that the economic potential of Brazil, Russia, India, and China is such that they will become among the four most dominant economies by the year 2050 with nearly 40% of the world's population and a combined GDP equalling 15.435 trillion dollars. On all tables, this would make it the largest entity in the globe.
IBSA – India, Brazil, South Africa: As new developing nations, this group is engaging to form a new platform for political and economic discussions to compliment there strong economies. Eventually, this will help consolidate their interests in trade negotiations previously controlled by the U.S.
SCO – Shanghai Co-operation Organisation: This group brings together Russia, China and some central Asian republics to discuss security concerns in central Asia. This is not a military bloc and to the U.S.’s favor, both Russia and China’s mutual suspicions are compromising its effectiveness. However, with Pakistan, India and Iran having observer status the foundations exist for a wider anti-America agenda.
European Union: Wealth, size, and economic output render this union a candidate for leadership; however, it is highly doubtful to coalesce into an anti American bloc. Moreover, a lack of internal coherence will limit its capacity to exert global influence of a dominating quality.
Iran: Aside from its nuclear ambitions, Iran is developing the world’s largest gas field with India in addition to meeting China’s rising energy needs with trade exchange growing by nearly 40% in 2006 alone. Opposition to the U.S. provides a basis to form closer relations with other anti American states including Venezuela and Cuba. Of significance, Iran and Venezuela are leading OPEC members giving them a significant capacity to exercise control in world oil markets.
Opportunely, there are competitive tensions between these states, tensions permitting Washington to play them off against one another at least for the time being. In due course, this may well change and how the U.S. confronts the challenge will determine whether such networks prove to be an opportunity or threat to its global dominance.
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