October 27, 2008

Obama or McCain, little changes on Iran

Suggestions of a global reduction in tensions following a Presidential change are premature, not least flawed. Aside from Afghanistan and Iraq, the most immediate foreign policy challenge will be ever present – a nuclear Iran. In spite of who wins office diplomacy, though the preferred option seems set to fail simply because Iran wants to pursue the nuclear option. Michael Rubin paints a grim picture for the next President on the basis that Iran’s nuclear development shall continue unabated.

Aside from this, if we need further evidence that Israel is preparing for confrontation it is this. Israel is all too aware that any strike on Iran must be at least sufficient to buy time for a more permanent solution. With the possibility of an S-300 ground to air missile system in the way, the chances of success are diminished, as are the chances of losing valuable military craft. “In the 1973 Yom Kippur War the Israelis lost scores of jets to Soviet missiles over Syria.”

Meanwhile Australia recently ramped up sanctions beyond those imposed by the U.N. Do not be surprised if other nations soon follow suit. For now though, expect other efforts to continue, including increased military maneuverings and weapons sales within the region.

Not to be seen doing little, in September the U.S. deployed a highly sophisticated long-range radar system in southern Israel capable of providing critical early warning in the event of attack. Staffed by over 100 American personnel it represents the first permanent U.S. military presence in the Jewish state.

For world leaders Iran is quickly shaping up to be the problem from hell, a crises perhaps bigger that Wall St. Says Rubin, “A nuclear weapons capable Islamic Republic of Iran is strategically untenable”, adding:

A nuclear ready or nuclear-armed Islamic Republic ruled by the clerical regime could threaten the Persian Gulf region and its vast energy resources, spark nuclear proliferation throughout the Middle East, inject additional volatility into global energy markets, embolden extremists in the region and destabilize states such as Saudi Arabia and others in the region, provide nuclear technology to other radical regimes and terrorists (although Iran might hesitate to share traceable nuclear technology), and seek to make good on its threats to eradicate Israel.
The bigger that Wall St contention may or may not prove correct, depending on what happens to financial markets in the coming months. Either way this commentators words are unsettling.

As Americans look the other way, Tehran's bomb moves closer. Live in the US any length of time, and one thing you soon realize: the country, be that its media or its government, can only focus on one crisis at a time. Right now, that failing is eminently forgiveable. Nothing is more pressing than a financial meltdown that unless it is tackled in days – or a very few weeks at the most – could lead to the Great Depression of the 21st century. But amid the turmoil, another crisis has been forgotten. Once it was measured in years, now the critical moment may arrive in months. Does anyone remember a certain country called Iran, and its suspected plan to build a nuclear weapon?
I am the opinion that Rubin is right, diplomacy needs to be backed by forms of economic coercion, sanctions, and the threat of military actions.

Let us hope the next President is a brave multitasker …

4 comments:

GrEaT sAtAn'S gIrLfRiEnD said...

True - problems with the world's unfree autocrazies (horrid or benign) will still be out there.

Great post!

AI said...

Indeed they will Courtney, thanks for coming round ... 'autocrazies" I like that!

Karen said...

Iran continues on its quest. Nothing changes, true enough. Obama will follow the Carter/Clinton model and bury his head until it is too late and then expect to use only diplomacy. I have no faith that he will keep our homeland safe. And, he is surrounded by Carter's old anti-Semite advisers and some from Clinton, too, so Israel should be quite worried by now, too.

Frasypoo said...

It seems like everyone is gearing up.My mom was telling me about the nuclear deal India has/had with the US.
Though theres a differance with arming yourself wisely or planning to attack with it.
PS:Welcome back.Hope you had a great vacation